Do U wnt a :X ballot?

Update: Ok, I knew I shouldn't have put "Other" as an option in that poll! I was hoping for a glimpse of who you all thought would make the best leader from the perspective of a Labour MP or supporter. If "Other" still gets your vote do please add who that "Other" person might be in a comment at the bottom of the post. If it's still "Nobody" (à la Dubbieside!) then feel free to add that too!
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So Hoon and Hewitt have broken cover, texting the Labour MPs as to whether they want a secret ballot about Gordon Brown's future. Guido has a transcript of a letter (I hope Geoff and Pat didn't put all of that letter into several text messages - I for one would have RSI by the end of that lot). I've added a new poll at the right hand side where you can vote for the person you think would perform best as Brown's replacement - NB put party loyalty aside, no voting for who you think would be the worst Leader!

The ballot raises the following obvious questions to my mind:

1. Will the ballot happen, and if so will the MPs oust Brown? How many rebels would be needed before his position becomes untenable? 20? 30? 50? 100?
   
2. Who would succeed him? No outstanding or even unifying candidates I would venture, and would any of the least worst options want such a poisoned chalice? I recall some opinion polls last year that put Mr T Blair as the Labour leader who would perform best should Brown be replaced!! The Milibands, Straws and Harmans of this world didn't seem to find any more favour than Brown did with those polled.
   
3. Would a change of PM make any difference to voting intentions? Would the passive lack of enthusiasm for any successor be mitigated by the absence of active disapproval of Brown?
4. How would it play in the Labour heartlands if a Blairite contender emerges triumphant? In particular, what would be the effect in Scotland if the so-called "Scottish mafia" loses control at Westminster? Furthermore, will there ever be another Scottish (or Welsh) leader of any of the UK parties in these days of devolution?
   
5. Would the public stand for a second unelected PM? Would the election have to be brought forward? And if so...

...here's a mischievous thought-experiment that occurred to me the other day. Imagine the scene: the SNP fail to get their 2010 budget passed, GARL proving a sticking point too far. Alex Salmond makes good on his threat to go to the people with a snap election for early March. What are the consequences for the UK general election?

Could we have the UKGE at the same time as the Scottish election? (remember the confusion last time over multiple ballot papers!) Could any of the UK parties afford two election campaigns in short succession? If not would that clear the way for the SNP to significantly outspend their rivals? If Brown is ousted and the public do demand a UKGE, would the rest of the UK be happy to hang around waiting for Scotland to finish a Holyrood election first? Would any of these considerations come into play when the opposition MSPs consider the Scottish budget in the first place? (I can just imagine Mandy on the phone to Murphy who then spells it out for Gray in words of one syllable that Labour can't afford to block the SNP budget!)

Perhaps the above scenario won't come to pass this year, but at some point we're going to see the UK and Scottish electoral cycles moving into conflict with each other. Has anyone thought about the implications of this yet?

Lots of questions there, any takers?

PS Happy New Year to you all!

What a difference a decade makes

Ten years into the era of devolution and we live in interesting times. I'm reminded of the tale of George Bernard Shaw in conversation with a young lady: "Would you sleep with me if I gave you 10,000 pounds?" he asked her. She thought about it and decided that she would. "Good," said Shaw, "so would you also sleep with me for sixpence?" The lady was outraged. "What sort of woman do you think I am?" she thundered. "We've established what sort of woman you are," Shaw replied, "we're merely haggling over the price."

It seems to me that Britannia finds herself in a similar position to that young lady. The referendum in 1997 established the principle that Scotland was entitled to self-determination. The resounding Yes-Yes vote further established the principle of self-governance. And the argument was essentially over at that point. Scotland firmly established what sort of a union it has with the rest of the UK. Scottish sovereignty resides with the Scottish people, not with Westminster (nor indeed with Holyrood!).

Since then there has been much "haggling over the price": which powers to devolve, which to reserve? But the principle of Scottish sovereignty towers above the debate, the Scottish people must decide.

Which brings us to the question of a referendum on Scotland's future constitutional arrangements. Do we need one? Or are we all content with the current model of devolution?

Over the last decade it has appeared increasingly clear to me that change is needed. The rise in the share of the vote for the SNP has been remarkable, as has the demise of the New Labour project. Not all of this swing can be ascribed to a protest vote. Many people will have voted for the SNP precisely because they want Scotland to have more power. This has become all the more likely in light of Westminster's travails over the last year or two. For all its faults Holyrood looks like a paragon of probity next to "Wastemonster".

Meanwhile, the once barely audible discontent south of the border at the "subsidies" and "privileges" that Scotland supposedly enjoys has increased to a low rumble. As swingeing public sector cuts are applied over the next decade this perceived grievance will loom ever larger. How will a Tory government in Westminster respond? How will they handle an SNP government at Holyrood? What mandate will the Tories have to decide on reserved matters, such as Trident, for Scotland?

Alternatively, how will England react if it votes Tory but Labour's tally of Scottish MPs helps bring about a hung parliament? Suddenly that democratic deficit that Scots have railed against for so long might be keenly felt in middle England. Will the Tories happily leak votes to the English Democrats? I suspect not.

How then should Scotland face the challenges of the next decade? With a system that breeds misunderstanding and a sense of injury on both sides of the border? Or with a cleaner, simpler constitutional arrangement backed by a strong democratic mandate?

Quite simply Scotland must be given a direct choice. Not some sleekit, skewed choice, with arbitrary thresholds imposed as a spoiling tactic, nor an extrapolated choice based on the results of a general election fought over many different issues. No. We need a straight, honest choice between the main options: full independence; devolution max of whatever flavour (federalism? confederalism? Calman?); keeping the status quo; or direct rule from Westminster.

For me the choice remains clear, the principle of self-governance has been established. Independence is the logical outcome of that victory. Not "isolation", as Gordon Brown would love you to think of it (Why Gordon, do you think the Scots would vote for isolation? Is your opinion of us really so low?). But simply the freedom to run our country in a fair and just fashion according to our ever-changing needs, choosing when and on what terms to cooperate with our neighbours as common interests arise, and playing a full part in the international community.

As ever the consitutional poll remains open in Brigadoon: cast your vote in the poll on the right hand side.

Constitutional poll

Evening all. I've added a new poll at the bottom of the blog: simply choose one or more of your favoured constitutional settlements for Scotland. The intention is to leave the poll there for a good long while, perhaps even until the next Holyrood election. Hopefully a good few votes will come in...shame we won't be getting that chance in the real world!

Oh, and don't forget the poll on Iain Gray's conference speech on the right hand side - currently Darling's botched clone is struggling for support, surely there must be some more Labour voters out there capable of using the internet...?