Saturday, 16 April 2011

Who the hell are the 27%?!?

Scotland on Sunday are reporting the results of a new poll ahead of the Holyrood election.

The differences in percentages for SNP and Labour seem to be pretty small (3% on the constituency vote, 2% on the regional vote), and comparable to the normal margin of error of such polls, so all still to play for. Having said that, the fall (6%) in Labour's share of the all-important regional vote is greater than the normal margin of error, so that would appear to be significant and perhaps adds weight to the sense of momentum in the SNP's favour seen in previous polls.

What is way beyond the margin of error however, is the 57% of people who want Alex Salmond for FM as opposed to the 27% who prefer Iain Gray. A few thoughts come to mind...

1. Even assuming that all 27% who opted for Gray are Labour voters, it would seem that there are a fair number of Labour supporters out there that don't want Gray as FM!

2. Will the London Labour minders let Gray off the leash again in this campaign, in an attempt to boost his standing, or will they err on the side of caution and try to keep him out of trouble between now and polling day?

3. Will Gray enjoy much legitimacy with the general public if Labour manage to turn things around and squeak through as the largest party, given his consistently poor personal poll ratings?

4. How long will Labour MSPs (and/or MPs) give Gray to make a splash if he does manage to become FM? Realistically, who is there within the Labour MSP ranks that would do any better?

Answers in a comment box please.


Anonymous said...

Gray's better replacement


dprowlands said...

Good point Lord Snooty, a quick glance at some of the Labour "talent" on display in the last parliament, and during the campaign, makes it clear that having no replacement for Gray would be the "least worst" option for Labour in Scotland!