Who the hell are the 27%?!?

Scotland on Sunday are reporting the results of a new poll ahead of the Holyrood election.

The differences in percentages for SNP and Labour seem to be pretty small (3% on the constituency vote, 2% on the regional vote), and comparable to the normal margin of error of such polls, so all still to play for. Having said that, the fall (6%) in Labour's share of the all-important regional vote is greater than the normal margin of error, so that would appear to be significant and perhaps adds weight to the sense of momentum in the SNP's favour seen in previous polls.

What is way beyond the margin of error however, is the 57% of people who want Alex Salmond for FM as opposed to the 27% who prefer Iain Gray. A few thoughts come to mind...

1. Even assuming that all 27% who opted for Gray are Labour voters, it would seem that there are a fair number of Labour supporters out there that don't want Gray as FM!

2. Will the London Labour minders let Gray off the leash again in this campaign, in an attempt to boost his standing, or will they err on the side of caution and try to keep him out of trouble between now and polling day?

3. Will Gray enjoy much legitimacy with the general public if Labour manage to turn things around and squeak through as the largest party, given his consistently poor personal poll ratings?

4. How long will Labour MSPs (and/or MPs) give Gray to make a splash if he does manage to become FM? Realistically, who is there within the Labour MSP ranks that would do any better?

Answers in a comment box please.

Gray powerless

And so, shock of shocks, Lord Steel's inquiry has cleared Alex Salmond of misleading the Scottish parliament with regard to the prisoner John Brown absconding from Castle Huntly. I'm sure we can all look forward to a healthy dose of contrition from Iain Gray for wasting everyone's time with his idle complaints...or perhaps not.

Political giant Iain Gray (source: Gary Doak Photography)

Weary fa' you, Iain Gray!

Weary fa' you, Iain Gray!
Ha, ha, this grinnin' poet,
Rejoices that you, Iain Gray,
Invariably do blow it!
When baseless gripes ye wildly bray,
Ye mark how far ye've lost your way,
Wha plants the seed o' your doomsday?
'Tis you yourself that sows it!

He thought that it was Eck's high-noon,
Ha, ha, an' how he crowed it!
But tae Gray's poison Eck's immune!
By now ye'd think he'd know it!
How will this glaikit Labour goon,
Stop his poll ratings hurtlin' doon?
"By meek obedience before Broon!"
At every turn he shows it!

Poor Iain's tongue such drivel saith,
Ha, ha, he ought tae stow it!
Wi' his pal Murphy, puppets baith,
The London line, they toe it!
While "Scottish" Labour puts it's faith,
In Gormless Brown, yon flimsy wraith,
Frae Stranraer up as far as Aith,
The Scots will overthrow it!

Logan's run

The BBC ICM poll details have been published (available here). Some interesting snippets therein, particularly the mixed feeling on Brown as PM, the foreboding at the prospect of Cameron as PM, and the high aproval for Salmond as FM.

The two big questions posed were around how Scotland should be governed and how Scots would vote in a referendum next year. Mischievous type that I am I couldn't help but notice that the 65+ age group responded quite differently to the rest on these questions...

Q.14 Which of the following comes closest to your view about how Scotland should be governed....

			Excl. 65+	All
		Scotland should become independent of the rest of the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make all decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland	42.27%	38.35%
		Scotland should remain part of the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland	49.94%	53.72%
		Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland made by the UK Government	6.67%	6.64%
		Don't know	1.11%	1.29%

Q.19 Next year, the Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum to ask the people of Scotland whether they agree or disagree that..."the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state"

			Excl. 65+	All
For			45.92%	42.26%
Against			46.41%	50.10%
Refused			7.67%	7.64%

Interesting stuff I'm sure you'll agree! Remove the wrinklies (hypothetically speaking!) and Q.19 looks pretty close to me. Maybe Eck should wait a few more years for that referendum ;o)

The remaining difference between pro-independence and pro-devolution max responses to Q.14 comes largely from the 18-34 age group. I wonder what effect a lack of jobs for young people and a good dose of paternal Toryism might have on this group over the next few years...all to play for!

Poll results: trade trip to China

Who should represent Scotland on a trade trip to China?

Alex Salmond: 33
Jim Murphy: 1 (good of you to drop in Jim!)
Both: 1
Fred Goodwin: 1 (on a one-way ticket presumably?)