Referendummies

Some suggestions are doing the rounds that 2 referenda are required in order to achieve independence for Scotland. The first would seek the permission of the Scottish people to negotiate the terms of independence. The second would then allow the people to decide if they liked the results of those negotiations. Sounds reasonable enough in principle...except it does rather assume a level playing field.

As David Cameron has said, he will fight an independence referendum with every fibre of his being. Now, fast forwarding a bit, let's imagine the first referendum has been won and the negotiations are about to take place. If I were David Cameron I would have a very good incentive to drive the hardest deal I possibly could in order to influence the result of that second referendum. Give Scotland a terrible deal and the people will surely reject it. Sounds like the sort of thing one would do if one was desperate to keep Scotland in the union. And what would happen after that rejection? We would be in tricky territory - the Scots want independence, but not on the agreed terms. Does that mean more negotiations and a further referendum, repeated until a palatable solution is found? Or is the whole thing shelved, despite the Scots having voted for independence? Sounds like a recipe for chaos.

The knock against the single referendum is of course that approval would give the Scottish government carte blanche to get any old negotiated settlement from Westminster. But quite why the Scottish government would be content to get a bad deal I'm not sure. More plausibly the fear might be that a spurned and spiteful Westminster would only offer grossly unfavourable terms. But that would hardly be conducive to good relations between neighbours. And it would surely be in everyone's interests for the neighbours to get along - even after independence we will still have many interests in common. And it wouldn't play terribly well in the international arena for rump UK to be seen to be thwarting the legitimate democratic aspirations of Scotland.

Interesting times ahead anyway. I just hope Lord Forsyth keeps out of it - how he can possibly think he has a right to influence our nation's future one way or the other is beyond me. Twenty years on and he's still none the wiser.

Scotland comes of age!

Well it's official - the SNP now have a majority in the Scottish Parliament with 21 seats still up for grabs. Unbelievable. Having sat up all through the night enjoying the banter at Subrosa's blog I'm still buzzing. Result after result just kept tumbling our way with some ludicrous swings to the SNP, principally (though not exclusively) from the Lib Dems.

Breaking the Glasgow Labour hegemony is surely a watershed moment in Scotland's modern political history. The habit of many lifetimes has been broken, once and forever. Now that people have come over to the SNP once they will surely find it much easier to do so in future.

The referendum is now a certainty, though I agree with Alex Salmond that this should not be rushed. It's a crucial vote for Scotland's future and the unofficial campaign for a Yes vote should begin right now. Opponents have already begun talking Scotland down (Danny Alexander conspicuously doing so on the BBC earlier today, happily falling into bed with Ed Balls of all people).

Top priority for the SNP though must be getting enhanced powers for Holyrood asap. My great fear is that the reality of cuts to the Scottish block grant will make manifesto commitments extremely difficult to deliver. And we can't use the excuse of minority government now. Labour will paint these as SNP cuts, despite the truth that they are coming from Westminster and are due to Labour's 13 years of misrule. The solution is to gain the extra powers that will allow us to lift our economy up towards its potential. Once that is done we will be in a much better position to persuade the electorate that Scotland's future will best be served as an independent nation, able to govern itself according to its own priorities, taking its place with the other free nations of the world and cooperating with them where common interests occur. We must all play our part in lifting our nation up.

Labour, the party you can trust

Well, blow me down. Looks like a sitting Labour MP has been caught red-handed removing placards from opposing parties in Wales...



A Labour Shadow Minister no less trying to undermine democracy, whodathunkit?

Update:

Well, I couldn't resist...

There was an MP from Caerphilly,
Whose electoral tactics were silly,
The treachorous blackguard,
Secreted the placard,
In the innermost part of his...jacket.

Any improvements?